China Consumer Series: The Chinese Middle Class - Miracle or Myth?

* Arthur R. Kroeber, Co-editor, China Economic Quarterly and Director
Dragonomics Research
* Paul French, Founder and Chief China Representative
Access Asia
Moderator: Phillip Yin, Associate Director Portfolio Management
Schwab Private Client Group

China Business Committee

There has been much talk about a consumption boom in China, fuelled by the explosive growth of an urban middle class which some forecasts predict will exceed 500m people by 2015. Arthur Kroeber, director of economic research firm Dragonomics, will present its findings that the "Chinese middle class" today is both smaller and poorer than often reported. Total expenditure by China's consuming urban residents will grow from about US$200bn in 2005 to US$1 trillion in 2015, but it will be hard to wring profits from this fast-expanding market because of cut-throat competition and rampant price cutting. Mr. Kroeber has been a financial journalist and economic researcher in Asia since 1987, writing articles on China and India for publications including the Economist, the Far Eastern Economic Review, and Wired. He spent several years as an analyst for the Economist Intelligence Unit, covering Taiwan, China and South Asia, before joining Dragonomics in 2002. He is a frequent contributor to the opinion page of the Financial Times and a consultant to Oxford Analytica.

Veteran China watcher Paul French of Access Asia will discuss his observations of the spending habits and priorities of Chinese consumers and will give examples of how retailers and brands are struggling to find and define China's middle class. He also will air the problems China poses for those aiming mid-market. Paul is currently involved in working with retailers and brands on their supply chain management and expansion strategies in China. Paul was co-author of the 1998 book One Billion Shoppers: Accessing Asia's Consuming Passions; North Korea - The Paranoid Peninsula, published in 2005, and Carl Crow: A Tough Old China Hand - The Life, Times and Adventures of an American in Shanghai (2006).

This panel is the second event in an interactive series about China's consumers.